Amy Webb’s Method for Finding the Future

Amy Webb's 6-step method for "finding the future":

  1. Finding the fringe: gather information and map the relationship between data points
  2. Categorizing the pattern according to CIPHER (contradictions, inflections, practices, hacks, extremes, and rarities)
  3. Asking the right questions: Determine if a pattern is really a trend by creating counter-agents to poke holes in the theory
  4. Calculate the ETA: Monitor internal and external developments to assess how quickly the pattern is unfolding
  5. Create probable, plausible, and probable scenarios and define an appropriate strategy
  6. Pressure-test your strategy to determine if it is in fact effective


  • Link


Webb, Amy. The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream. New York: PublicAffairs, 2018.