When we try to exercise foresight and predict what may or may not happen in the future, our vision is always obscured by the past. We lack the vocabulary and the concepts we need to talk about the past, never mind the difficulties we face understanding what patterns of the past or present will carry over.
- Reading about strategy won't produce a winning strategy
- Base strategy on leading, not lagging, indicators
- Brainstorming surfaces available ideas, not new ideas.
- People fill information gaps with assumptions
- Quantitative analysis is not inherently more reliable than qualitative data
- Strategy is time-sensitive
"Without a guided process, we fall victim to the paradox of the present. We have a hard time seeing the future because we lack a shared point of reference rooted in our present circumstances."
"Compounding the problem were the paradox of the present—the bias of paying attention to the last few signals you've seen, read, or heard—and the difficulty the brain has in describing something using new terms and ideas we don't yet understand."