Resilient strategy is an idea I am kicking around that describes using strategy and foresight to promote sustainable businesses and organizations that are primed for resilience, durability, and longevity. Contrary to Long-term thinking may be constrained by a bias toward presentism sustainable strategy is a long game.
(NB: I originally called this "sustainable strategy"; I think "resilient strategy" is a better term for what I am trying to articulate.)
Adapting to change
- Change happens gradually, then suddenly.
- Change is disorienting because it is constant
- Established organizations tend to optimize for inertia
- Strategic inflection points disrupt the underlying assumptions of a business or industry
- Resilience has a modifiable set point
- Amy Webb’s method for finding the future
- CIPHER method for trendspotting
- Future trends emerge when a fundamental human need is met by a new enabling technology.
- Inflection points reveal themselves first at the edges
- Market research is a poor tool for trendspotting
- Our models for understanding dynamic situation should undergo constant revision.
- Our vision of the future is always constrained by our view of the past.
- Qualitative research creates mental models about the problem space.
- Strategic inflection points develop over four stages
- Think about the future across multiple planes and timezones
- Common innovation anti-patterns
- Common myths about innovation
- Corporate innovation means discovering sustainable new business models
- De-risk innovation by making smaller bets
- Innovation accrues in small, incremental steps.
- Innovation thrives in open environments
- Lean methodologies promote velocity at the expense of understanding
- Loss aversion creates tension between the need to innovate and the need to protect the status quo in large organizations
- Managers craft safe environments for their people
- Protect dissent
- Traditional road maps force companies into confirmation bias
- Design environments to facilitate behaviours
- Ethical design requires a new definition of business value
- Mission-driven organizations more easily adapt to changing circumstances
- Infinite games are open-ended and played mainly to keep playing
- Fixating on metric data biases us to the short term
- Focusing too narrowly on efficiency creates risk
- Measuring performance stymies organizational intimacy
- Metric fixation is a symptom of a decline in social trust
- Organizations have become primarily focused on short-term results
- Organizations should align around a clear strategic focus
- Organizations should be evaluated against their contributions to broader social factors.
- Sustainable strategy cannot be easily replicated
- Different kinds of uncertainty
- Non-stationary reflexive situations are characterized by radical uncertainty
- Sensemaking articulates new perspectives and frames for understanding the world around us
- What is going on here is the fundamental question for evaluating uncertain situations